The Final Solution to Save Modern Iraq: Between Federalism or the Yugoslav Model
In light of the failure of the national state project in modern Iraq, established in 1921 by British colonialism from three principal components — Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Shiites — it has become clear that the country is facing an existential crisis. With the continued dominance of the sectarian Shiite system, the escalation of displacement and demographic change policies against Sunni Arabs, and the systematic pressure imposed on the Kurdistan Region, it has become necessary to propose a radical solution that takes into consideration not only Iraq’s internal reality, but also the security and stability of the entire region.
This proposed solution is not intended to dismantle Iraq as an objective in itself, but rather represents a realistic attempt to extinguish sectarian conflict and prevent its expansion into neighboring countries, especially amid Iran’s continued destabilizing role in Iraq through militias and Tehran’s direct involvement in fueling sectarian conflicts. It also cannot be ignored that American leniency and Washington’s failure to fulfill its expected role contributed to pushing Iraq to the edge of collapse, despite the signing of the “Strategic Framework Agreement,” which obligates the United States to support Iraq’s stability and the construction of its democratic system.
Although the United States played a central role in drafting the current Iraqi Constitution and paid an enormous price in the Iraq War — represented by thousands of American soldiers killed and trillions of dollars spent from taxpayers’ funds — it did not fulfill its commitments to guarantee the implementation of this constitution, particularly regarding its federal provisions, which are considered among the most important tools for restoring balance and stability inside Iraq. If the project of genuine tripartite federalism is not implemented seriously, then the only remaining alternative will be a simplified Yugoslav-style model, presented below as a final realistic solution to preserve what remains of the region’s unity and stability, and as the last realistic path to save what can still be saved.
The Alternative Scenario: The Former Yugoslavia Solution in Its Iraqi Version
This scenario proposes dividing Iraq into only two entities in order to guarantee a minimum level of stability and prevent a comprehensive regional explosion, according to the following arrangement:
The Shiite Republic of Iraq
This entity would consist of nine southern provinces with a Shiite majority:
Basra, Maysan, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Qadisiyyah, Najaf, Karbala, Babil, and Wasit.
This entity would be based on sectarian cohesion and political and institutional compatibility, thereby enhancing the prospects of building a stable state capable of managing its affairs without internal conflict.
The Republic of Shaam (Sunni Republic)
This entity would consist of nine Sunni-majority provinces, including:
Baghdad, Anbar, Nineveh, Salahuddin, Diyala, Kirkuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Dohuk.
This entity would include both the Kurdistan Region (Sunni Kurdish) and the East Shaam Region (Sunni Arab), within a unified Sunni-Kurdish state under international protection, aimed at ending sectarianism, restoring balance, guaranteeing regional security, and preventing the export of instability and sectarian conflict into neighboring countries.
Yugoslavia: When Self-Determination Was the Solution
In the experience of former Yugoslavia, the right to self-determination played a fundamental role in ending the bloody wars and ethnic conflicts that devastated the region. Despite attempts to obstruct the independence of certain components in the beginning for political reasons, countries such as Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Montenegro ultimately succeeded in separating from Serbian domination after a series of wars, interventions, and diplomatic efforts, establishing independent states that respected the culture and diversity of their peoples.
The right to self-determination, supported by United Nations charters and international law, became the path toward ending bloodshed and restoring stability. The same principle could be achieved today in Iraq if this right were granted to communities facing persecution, marginalization, and forced demographic change.
Legal Foundations for the Right to Self-Determination
The right to self-determination is not a theoretical idea or emotional aspiration, but rather a fundamental legal right supported by numerous international agreements and declarations, including:
- United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1514 of 1960 (Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples)
- United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2625
- The Algiers Declaration of 1976
- The Vienna Declaration of 1993
Examples of the application of this right include:
- The dismantling of centralized states, as occurred in the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia.
- Secession, as occurred in South Sudan.
- Autonomy, as in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
- Referendums, as occurred in Quebec in Canada and Scotland in the United Kingdom.
- Reunification, as occurred in Germany and Yemen (despite Yemen’s later return to civil war).
Conclusion
The final solution to the tragedy of modern Iraq, should a genuine transition toward tripartite federalism fail, lies only in a new model based on the right of peoples to self-determination — a model that protects populations from both demographic and physical extermination, ends sectarian domination, and grants oppressed peoples the opportunity to build independent civil states, similar to what occurred in Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and other international experiences.
The adoption of such a model would not only protect Iraq, but would also guarantee the security of neighboring countries from the spread of chaos and sectarianism. It would send a clear message that redrawing borders does not arise from a desire for separation itself, but from an ethical, security, and political necessity when the state fails to protect all of its components with justice.
